The Pants Predicts: Iowa Football in 2026

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The college football season officially kicks off today with week zero getting underway. Your Iowa Hawkeyes start things in week one with a home matchup against the Northern Illinois Huskies at 3:15pm CT.

Iowa is a heavy favorite in each of their first three games this season – all at home and each against varying levels of competition. The folks over at FanDuel Sportsbook have Iowa’s season win total at over/under 7.5. The Hawkeyes haven’t gone under that number in a full season since 2014.

Here at The Pants, we’re betting the over once again despite a notably more challenging schedule in 2026. On average, our staff is calling for Iowa to win just over 8.5 games this year. There’s consensus on the Hawks falling at home to the top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes and we’ve all learned our lessons by now on Iowa traveling west of the Rockies – we’re all taking the Huskies on a short week.

Beyond that, however, there is some discrepancy on just where Iowa will slip up the rest of the way

Here’s a look at our staff’s individual season outlooks.

JPinIC

I mentioned this in my Kids Day QB battle story, but this just feels like a year where we wonder for a long time “what if.” I can’t remember being this excited about the receiving weapons or the offense in general in at least a decade. Yes, there are serious questions on the defensive side of the ball but I am inclined to put all my faith in Phil Parker at this point and say he will have this thing figured out by week 4 when Big Ten play starts. It might be a modest step back from the absurd levels we’ve seen the entirety of his tenure, but it will be very good.

The offense, on the other hand, feels like will be in transition. Jeremy Hecklinski looked like our savior in the lone open practice. He was exciting. He was accurate. He was taking chances. It was exhilarating to watch.

Which is why it feels so obvious to me that it will be Hank Brown under center in week one. He will look totally fine against NIU. Then he’ll continue to look just fine as Iowa strolls past Iowa State and UNI. But then we get to Big Ten play and I expect him to freeze under pressure and cost us the game at Michigan, which I really think Iowa should win.

Fast forward a week and Brown looks like absolute garbage against an elite Ohio State defense as the Hawkeyes get pummeled at home. Hecklinski gets meaningful minutes in the second half but doesn’t look incredible and likely throws a pick. So Brown again starts on the short week at Washington and again looks bad. Hecklinski plays the second half and rips it but Iowa comes up short.

Kirk and Lester take the bye week to fully transition to Hecklinski as the starter and Iowa’s offense looks like a dream the rest of the way. The Hawkeyes finish 9-3 and we’re all left wondering what could have been if Hecklinski had just been the starter the whole season like we all thought he should be post-Kids Day.

Season Prediction: 9-3
Wins: NIU, ISU, UNI, @Minnesota, Wisconsin, @Northwestern, Purdue, @Illinois, Nebraska
Losses: @Michigan, Ohio State, @Washington

GlendaleHawk

I’ll be honest, I really don’t know how to feel about this season. I’m probably overly optimistic about the offense, overly pessimistic about the defense, and likely way too pessimistic about STs. Iowa seems to be awash in specialists with high ceilings (Vannahme, Moulton, Phillips, VanderZee, Diaz, etc…) to be paired with an unproven QB (whether it’s Hank, Heck, or – maybe – Jimmy) playing behind an only somewhat proven OLine running an offense that will not have Mark Gronowski’s experience and mobility to turn negatives into positives. Again, I think they have a much higher ceiling than last year, but the floor may also be significantly lower.

I have every reason to believe that Phil Parker will put an excellent defensive unit on the field, but I’m not sure he has the horses to make it an elite unit, or at least not one that will measure up to the defenses we’ve seen keep Iowa in a lot of games that we could have, should have, or did win over the last few years. I’m not particularly concerned with the old B1G West portion of the schedule (though Illinois and Nebraska both give me pause, Rhule has to get over the hump eventually, right?), but going on the road to Michigan, coming home to OSU and then hopping a flight to Seatlle for a Friday night tilt with the Huskies is brutal, and they’re going to need the Defense to be outstanding to come out of that 3 week span at anything better than 0-3.

I’m fully prepared for Special Teams to regress to the mean this season (though I think Brevin Doll may surprise some people as a returner), how could they not? There’s a new coordinator and new specialists at every posiion, anything better than average is likely to be a win. So, will the offense be able to deliver on 65+ yard drives more often? Will the defense be able to keep teams from scoring on shorter fields than they’re used to? At Iowa, sometimes too often, Special Teams wins games, so managing games with a diminished ST unit could be a bigger storyline than we’re used to.

All in all, I want to believe that this team can be special, that we’ll finally see an offense that breaks through and allows Iowa to shed its Sicko status, a defense that can keep that offense within striking distance (and/or preserve a lead under challenging conditions) and an ST unit that can still come through in the clutch, but I have my doubts. I really hope that they prove me wrong, but I think we’re looking at another 8-4 season with some exciting wins and some heartbreaking losses.

Season Prediction: 8-4
Wins: NIA, ISU, UNI, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Nebraska
Losses: @Michigan, OSU, @Washington, @Illinois

GingerHawk

What a bizarre feeling going into this year, to be excited for what this offense could be and unsure of the defense, and completely in the dark with special teams. It’s a complete inversion of what I think I’m supposed to be feeling on the eve of a new season.

No, the defense is not going to be as dominant as we’ve grown accustomed to under Phil Parker but I would be shocked if they do not grow into a solid group by late in the season. The defensive line is the primary point of concern after losing key personnel like Hurkett, Graves, and Llewellyn, so there will be a great amount of pressure on the few returners to step up while the newcomers round into form. But the uncertainty on the D-line will put stress the coverage of a similarly reworked secondary.

Meanwhile, I’m really looking forward to seeing this offense, regardless of who ends up getting the start against the Huskies (Part 1). This is the first time in a long time that I’ve been excited to see what Iowa does in the passing game with Vonnahme and Vander Zee the obvious standouts and the potential of adding Diaz to the mix. The running back stable is full of horses and despite losing LoJo, Dunker, and Stephens, I think the offensive line will still be a formidable unit.

Special teams? What can I say? It’s not a great thing when you have to replace every primary contributor and your coordinator.

I believe this offense will, for the most part, satisfy what so many of us have been hoping for. But Iowa will still need to win in the margins, and that’s where I see them struggling in the biggest games and just maybe dropping one they shouldn’t. For now, I’ll err on the side of optimism that after a rough opening of conference play they’ll have figured enough out to end strong.

Season Prediction: 9-3
Wins: NIU, ISU, UNI, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska
Losses: @Michigan, OSU, @Washington

HWKTACO

The one thing I am most confident in predicting for the 2026 edition of Iowa Football is that they will be more entertaining to watch on offense than they have been in years. I also feel confident that to start the season the defense and special teams will be consistently inconsistent. They say hindsight is 20/20, and by the end of week six we’ll have a pretty darn good idea of where this team stands.

With such an influx of (quality) portal transfer players and new recruits, it’s a blessing that ISU arrives in Kinnick with a new head coach and only 21 scholarship players returning from last season. Followed by UNI with a head coach in just his second season and still working to rebuild the roster. It’ll make for more than a 3-0 start. It’ll be an opportunity for the coaching staff to experiment with different rotations and see how the new players respond to something other than practice.

I’m going out on a limb and predicting Iowa makes the trek to the Big House and takes down Michigan. New head coach Kyle Whittingham (previously at Utah) was an excellent hire by Michigan, but neither he nor his nine new assistant coaches / coordinators (from Utah, BYU, and New Mexico) have coached in the Big Ten. Tim Lester, offensive coordinator, has said he added to the playbook for year three, and I suspect he has a few surprises he’ll be saving for the Wolverines.

After that it’s back to reality with OSU at home, and away at Washington for a Friday evening showdown on the west coast to end the first half of the season at 4-2. Then the level of competition greatly decreases, but at Illinois is a trap game. Their skilled receivers, returning leading rusher, and dual threat QB, coupled with their defensive backfield prove to be too much, and Iowa finishes the second half of the season 5-1.

Season Prediction: 9-3
Wins: NIU, ISU, UNI, @Mighican, @Minnesota, Wisconsin, @Northwestern, Purdue, Nebraska
Losses: Ohio State, @Washington, @Illinois

Matt Reisener

This is one of the harder Hawkeye teams to project in recent memory. The defense, which has been consistently elite for the last decade-plus, returns fewer career snaps than any Power Four team this season and has significant questions at defensive line and unproven players across the back seven. It’s hard to bet against Phil Parker, but it’s also fair to question whether a developmental program like Iowa could be poised for a slight step back on defense this season—and whether a team that is typically so dependent on that unit can survive even a slight regression. Meanwhile, Iowa’s special teams are as uncertain as they’ve been in years, with proven coordinator LeVar Woods in East Lansing, All-American returner Kaden Wetjen in Pittsburgh, and questions at both punter and kicker.

On the other hand, Iowa’s offense could be uncharacteristically good. The Hawkeyes boast remarkable depth at running back and tight end, an offensive line that could compete for another Joe Moore Award, and the most wide receiver talent they’ve had since 2020. Iowa’s offense dominated the defense at the Kid’s Day scrimmage on a day in which QB Jeremy Hecklinski threw for five touchdowns against zero interceptions. And yet, its hard to trust Iowa’s offense given its recent track record and Kirk Ferentz’s long history of making questionable calls at quarterback. The race between Hecklinski and Hank Brown for QB1 is apparently neck-and-neck, which either means Hecklinski is frighteningly inconsistent, the coaches are publicly playing up the competition to ensure neither player transfers, or Hank Brown is much better in practice than Iowa fans have seen him perform on the field. Either way, the QB position and passing game in general stand as the biggest variables that could determine the outcome of Iowa’s season.

The smart money says that the defense will be strong once again, and will likely get better as the season progresses—particularly when it comes to stopping the run. Iowa’s offense could be better than fans are used to seeing, but that might not show up on a week-to-week basis if there’s significant volatility at quarterback. Iowa has an absolutely brutal stretch to start the Big Ten season, so don’t be surprised if Iowa is 3-3 heading into its bye week. While I expect the Hawkeyes to a game they shouldn’t at some point in the campaign, 2026 should see Iowa round into form by season’s end, setting them up for a potential playoff push in 2027. That being said, if the Hawkeyes can develop a credible passing game, establish a solid rotation on the defensive line, and pull an upset early in the Big Ten season, Iowa may end up competing for a playoff spot a year ahead of schedule.

Season Prediction: 8-4
Wins: Northern Illinois, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, @Minnesota, Wisconsin, Purdue, @Illinois, Nebraska
Losses: @Michigan, Ohio State, @Washington, @Northwestern

So there you have it – the Buckeyes get revenge for the woodshed game, the Huskies get rewarded for their Friday night shenanigans and then some combination of Michigan, Northwestern and Illinois trips up Iowa the rest of the way. At least the trophy case will be full entering 2027…

What say you, Hawkeye fans? Where are those wins and losses coming in 2026? Lock it in before things officially kick off next Saturday!

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