Will Badgers have winning record? What national media, oddsmakers say

We know just about every Wisconsin Badgers fan wants to forget the 2025 football season. But looking back, most oddsmakers and projection models had the Badgers winning five games or less.

Those projections were right, as the Badgers finished a dismal 4-8.

However, there's reason for at least some optimism this fall.

Though Wisconsin has a tough season opener against Notre Dame at Lambeau Field, its schedule isn't the bear it was last season. Most projections have the Badgers' over/under number for victories at 6½.

But because UW doesn't play defending national champion Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon or Michigan this season in the 18-team Big Ten, ESPN gives it a better than 50% chance to win eight games, including its last four against Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue and Minnesota.

If that model proved correct, the Badgers would finish 8-4 overall and 6-3 in the Big Ten. And it would likely get coach Luke Fickell off the hot seat.

ESPN victory probability for Wisconsin

• Sept. 6: vs. Notre Dame at Lambeau Field: 7%
• Sept. 12: vs. Western Illinois: 99%
• Sept. 19: vs. Eastern Michigan: 94.7%
• Sept. 26: at Penn State: 19.7%
• Oct. 3: vs. Michigan State: 69%
• Oct. 17: at UCLA: 55.8%
• Oct. 24: vs. USC: 23.2%
• Oct. 31: at Iowa: 27.8%
• Nov. 7: vs. Rutgers: 72%
• Nov. 14: at Maryland: 53.8%
• Nov. 21: at Purdue: 61.3%
• Nov. 27: vs. Minnesota: 68.4%

CBS Sports is thinking along the same lines. It has the Badgers finishing over .500 in the Big Ten and 7-5 overall. Though it projects the Badgers finishing tied for 10th in the conference, seven victories would make them bowl-eligible:

"Luke Fickell's 2026 season comes with pressure, but a 7-5 finish would be enough to stabilize his job security, given the program's trajectory. The Badgers have endured roster turnover and uneven offensive production, yet still have the physical identity to grind out wins in the Big Ten. Improvement along the line of scrimmage with portal reinforcements should be enough to push Wisconsin back into bowl eligibility."

Big Ten title odds and College Football Playoff odds for Wisconsin

If betting on longshots is your thing, BetMGM has the Badgers at plus-15000 to win the Big Ten title. Perhaps throwing a dart at the College Football Playoff board is the better play – the Badgers are at plus-2500.

National championship odds for Wisconsin

So you want to bet on the impossible dream of the Badgers standing on a podium, holding a crystal football? It's probably not a good idea to go all-in. FanDuel has the Badgers' national-championship odds at plus-60000.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Will Badgers have winning record? What national media, oddsmakers say