Report: 24-team CFP a ‘foregone conclusion’ as leaders negotiate with ESPN
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It seems as if a 24-team College Football Playoff is moving from likely to inevitable.
According to a report by Yahoo Sports’ Ross Dellenger, the 24-team playoff is now seemingly a “foregone conclusion” as the sport’s leaders meet outside of Chicago to discuss logistics, including scheduling hurdles, for the expanded format.
Earlier this month, CFP executives entered a 30-day exclusive negotiating period with ESPN, the sole rightsholder for the playoff through 2032, to hammer out terms for an expanded field. The deadline for a new deal with ESPN is Oct. 9. Should the CFP and the network fail to reach a deal by then, rights for the 24-team playoff would then hit the open market, where other bidders like Fox could begin to throw their hat into the ring.
If expansion is to be ready in time for next season, a new deal would need to be settled by Dec. 1.
As expected, Dellenger reports that any expansion to 24 teams would include the elimination of conference championship games in order to make the schedule work. Those games are estimated to be valued at around $250 million in the aggregate, with the SEC Championship Game itself being pegged at adding around $100 million in value for the conference. Any offer for the expanded 24-team playoff would need to exceed the value conferences currently get for their championship games, otherwise there would be no financial justification for expansion.
The value of the expanded field remains the biggest question mark.
“The revenue is an unknown,” CFP executive director Rich Clark said Wednesday, per Dellenger. “That’s why we’re in this negotiating window.”
Clark also revealed how a potential schedule could look for a 24-team format, suggesting that the first round of an expanded playoff would “ideally” take place the week after the regular season ends, on the first weekend of December. That weekend has traditionally been held for conference championships. Then, the second round would take place in the third weekend of December, which is the same weekend the current 12-team format typically begins. The second-round games would “most likely” be played on the campus of the better seed.
One of the looming questions would be the future of the Army-Navy game, which traditionally plays on the second weekend of December. Dellenger mentions a possibility of the game moving up a week, though that would seemingly conflict with when the first round of a 24-team format would start, while the second weekend of December theoretically remains open. However, there would be complications under any scenario if Army or Navy were ever selected to participate in the playoff.
There are also implications for non-CFP bowl games. Dellenger reports that conference executives are discussing the possibility of a 10-bowl lineup that would pit power-conference opponents against one another, essentially replacing the current bowl structure, should the playoff field expand to 24.
As usual, there are a ton of moving parts. But it appears as if things will come to a head quickly with the looming Oct. 9 deadline between the CFP and ESPN just over a week away. Should no deal be reached before then, we could be in for quite the bidding war between broadcasters for an expanded College Football Playoff.
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